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Class Uncertainty, Risk and Decision Aiding

  • Presentation

    Presentation

    Provides knowledge, skills and tools for decision aiding in complex problems of Industrial Engineering and Management. Its scope includes the application of different methods for structuring evaluation models with multiple actors, objectives and alternatives, as well as the incorporation of uncertainty and risk.
  • Code

    Code

    ULHT6606-23870
  • Syllabus

    Syllabus

    1. Introduction and objectives 2. Decision Analysis and its theoretical foundations 3. Decision, Decision Maker, Objectives, Actions, Constraints 4. Types of Decision 5. Single-objective decisions. Time preference 6. Multi-criteria decision models 7. Objectives and indicators 8. Estimating consequences 9. Scales of measurement 10. Relative and absolute evaluation 11. Value functions 12. Weighting procedures 13. Uncertainty and Risk 14. Dominance Analysis 15. Scenario Analysis 16. Sensitivity Analysis 17. Monte Carlo Simulation 18. Stochastic Dominance
  • Objectives

    Objectives

    This curricular unit aims to deepen students' knowledge of models, processes and tools to support decision-makers. Such support will focus in structuring and exploring decisions characterized by the complexity of their context, multiple objectives, uncertainty, risk, and differences of opinion. More specifically, students will learn to: structure complex decision problems, in public or private context, and break them down into manageable parts; integrate goals and preferences of different decision-makers into the decision support model by eliciting their subjective preferences. include uncertainty and risk in decision support models and to test their assumptions; analyze real examples of decision analysis applications with uncertainty and risk; select and use decision support tools.
  • References

    References

    Clemen, R. T., Reilly, T. (2013). Making Hard Decisions With Decision Tools (3rd edition). ‎ Cengage Learning Yoe, C. (2019). Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (2nd Edition). CRC Press
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