Class Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Analysis

The course introduces several concepts relevant for risk management and risk assessment resulting from natural hazards, presenting several risk assessment methods (qualitative and quantitative) applicable to different scale and identifying the challenges for their practical implementation. The integration of such methodologies in risk management processes is also discussed, namely for producing risk maps.

Not applicable

1. Fundamental concepts 1.1. The Conceptual Risk Model: terminology and integration of concepts; Notion of uncertainty, danger, dangerousness, vulnerability (and its types), exposure, resilience and risk 1.2. Risk management cycle. 1.3. Risk perception and communication 1.4. Acceptable risk, tolerable risk and ALARP principle 1.5. Losses and consequences of risk, disaster databases 1.6. Spatial dimension of risk (risk on a local and global scale) and sequential dimension of risks (domino effects) 1.7. Risk reduction principles 2. Assessment of hazards, exposure and vulnerability: conceptual models and assessment methodologies; indicators, analysis and validation scales 3. Risk assessment 3.1. Qualitative and quantitative methods 3.2. Probabilistic and deterministic approach 3.3. Case studies 4. Legislative instruments in force for risk management and assessment. 4.1. The risks in Civil Protection policies and Spatial Planning policies 4.3. Risk matrices

Classes consist of theoretical presentations in which concepts and methodologies on risk assessment and analysis are characterized and practical application exercises are proposed. The assessment will be continuous and consists of: an individual test (50%), which focuses on conceptual, methodological or practical application issues; an individual work (30%), of a monographic nature, which focuses on research and analysis of a type of risk and participation/attendance in classes (20%). In case of failure, the student has access to the final exam (100%), with nature and complexity equivalent to the previous assessment process. 

Alexander, D., & Pescaroli, G. (2019). What are cascading disasters? UCL Open Environment, 1. https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000003 ANEPC (2023) - Avaliação Nacional do Risco. Bosher, L., Chmutina, K. (2017) Disaster risk reduction for the built environment. Wiley Blackwell. Costa, F. (2020). Redução de riscos de catástrofes e resiliência no quadro de Sendai: o exemplo das cidades resilientes. RISCOS - Associação Portuguesa de Riscos, Prevenção e Segurança, 9-33. https://doi.org/10.34037/978-989-54942-7-9_8 ISO (2018) ISO 31000 - Risk Management - Guidelines, 2nd Edition. International Organization for Standardization, Switzerland. Pursiainen C., Rød B. (2021). National disaster risk assessments in Europe. How comparable are they and why? Risks Hazards Crisis Public Policy. 12: 194–214. https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12215 UNDRR/UNISDR. 2017. Words Into Action Guidelines. National Disaster Risk Assessment. United Nations Officefor Disaster Risk Reduction.